{
  "review_date": "2026-11-05",
  "user_question": "Original network-analysis idea and relevant precedents",
  "scope_correction": "The completed two-basket causal detector evaluation does not evaluate the original stock-level network, network structure changes, directional connectedness or verified economic links.",
  "existing_local_network": {
    "code": "../../../net/net_analysis.py",
    "result": "../../../net/net_result.json",
    "nodes": 638,
    "correlation_edges": 1721,
    "downside_cooccurrence_edges": 1091,
    "stored_communities": 26,
    "parameters": {
      "neighbors": 4,
      "correlation_threshold": 0.3,
      "tail_threshold": 0.3,
      "tail_quantile": 0.05,
      "louvain_seed": 7
    },
    "status": "Static retrospective prototype; full-period beta/correlations and current holdings, not a point-in-time network alarm backtest.",
    "economic_links": "Filing-based customer-name candidates exist; do not treat text matches as fully adjudicated causal exposures.",
    "sensitivity_of_clusters_to_filter_seed_and_window_verified": false
  },
  "literature": [
    {
      "authors": "Rosario N. Mantegna",
      "year": 1999,
      "title": "Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets",
      "primary_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9802256",
      "version_note": "1998 preprint; 1999 journal publication",
      "method": "Correlation-distance hierarchical network and economic taxonomy",
      "local_relevance": "Price-based clusters spanning conventional sectors; our k-nearest-neighbor/Louvain implementation is not the paper's MST algorithm.",
      "inspection": "Author abstract and bibliographic information"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Billio, Getmansky, Lo and Pelizzon",
      "year": 2012,
      "title": "Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors",
      "primary_url": "https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/con_030991.pdf",
      "version_note": "Author-hosted 2011 draft of the study published in 2012",
      "method": "Principal components and Granger-causality networks for financial institutions",
      "local_relevance": "Network links and centrality as risk-monitoring indicators; their financial-institution results do not establish performance on our AI-infrastructure equities.",
      "inspection": "Indexed author abstract; full direct fetch denied"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Francis X. Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz",
      "year": 2014,
      "title": "On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms",
      "primary_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w17490",
      "accessible_author_version": "https://www.gc.cuny.edu/sites/default/files/2021-07/dieboldandyilmaz_CUNY.pdf",
      "method": "Weighted directed connectedness from forecast-error variance decompositions",
      "local_relevance": "Compare incoming/outgoing statistical connectedness of six value-chain stages before considering a high-dimensional firm VAR.",
      "inspection": "NBER abstract/publication metadata and indexed author-version abstract"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Lauren Cohen and Andrea Frazzini",
      "year": 2008,
      "title": "Economic Links and Predictable Returns",
      "primary_url": "https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Economic%20Links%20and%20Predictable%20Returns%20-%20Cohen%20and%20Frazzini.pdf",
      "method": "Public customer-supplier economic links and delayed incorporation of related-firm information",
      "local_relevance": "Keep economically evidenced edges separate from price correlation; align filing publication dates before historical use.",
      "inspection": "Author-hosted abstract and opening text"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Kritzman, Li, Page and Rigobon",
      "year": 2011,
      "title": "Principal Components as a Measure of Systemic Risk",
      "primary_url": "https://globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/service/public/v1/article/insights/pdf/v2/275a6997-b913-47da-b487-948d83f7765e/jpm_principal_components_as_a_measure_of_systemic_risk.pdf",
      "method": "Absorption ratio: covariance variance share explained by a fixed number of principal components",
      "classification": "System-wide concentration statistic; does not require an explicit network graph",
      "local_relevance": "A companion measure of concentration and lost diversification; not a standalone causal propagation graph.",
      "inspection": "Author-affiliated institutional copy, opening sections and definition"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Ito, Hasada, Honma, Ohnishi, Watanabe and Aihara",
      "year": 2026,
      "title": "Identifying dynamical network markers of financial market instability",
      "primary_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21297",
      "publication_status": "Preprint",
      "method": "Dynamical network markers on Tokyo Stock Exchange order-placement and execution participant series",
      "local_relevance": "Recent early-warning precedent with different data requirements; cannot transfer its claims to daily closing-price data.",
      "inspection": "Author abstract only"
    }
  ],
  "institutional_context": [
    {
      "organization": "International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds",
      "url": "https://ifswf.org/asset-allocation-discussion-mark-kritzman-mit-sloan-school-management",
      "evidence": "Edited expert discussion addresses financial turbulence, risk concentration and absorption ratio for sovereign-wealth-fund asset allocation.",
      "limit": "Discussion is not evidence that KIC or every member fund has deployed our proposed method."
    },
    {
      "organization": "Federal Reserve Board",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/taxonomy-of-studies-on-interconnectedness-20150731.html",
      "evidence": "Distinguishes direct economic-exposure networks, market-inferred networks and non-network concentration measures; explains sensitivity and interpretation limits."
    }
  ],
  "next_validation_candidates_not_implemented": [
    "Primary: restore the original Korean-equity lagged price/volume dual-network method from the notebook source before treating generic connectedness measures as a replacement for the user research.",
    "Point-in-time rolling stock-level graphs, retaining the original broad portfolio and a separately reported AI-infrastructure subset.",
    "Cross-sector edge weights, community membership changes and downside cooccurrence; compare against the two-basket and simple-price baselines.",
    "Absorption-ratio companion measure with fixed covariance estimation and component-count choices.",
    "Low-dimensional six-stage directional connectedness; statistical direction is not structural economic causality.",
    "Parameter/seed/window stability; a fixed top-k graph limits the meaning of raw edge-count density.",
    "Economic-link publication dates, direction, counterpart identity and materiality before adding a causal narrative."
  ],
  "claims_not_established": [
    "Algorithmic originality",
    "Full-network out-of-sample detection advantage",
    "Causal contagion identified from correlation",
    "Validated market crash forecasting"
  ],
  "users_original_2023_research": {
    "verbatim_notebook_heading": "(`23.08.05 - )Portfolio with Network Analysis",
    "notebook": "C:/dev/08_resources/_tmp/raidrive_full/net_peek/nb_230810.ipynb",
    "heading_cell": 6,
    "implementation_cell_inspected": 7,
    "related_notebooks": [
      "C:/dev/08_resources/_tmp/raidrive_full/net_peek/nb_230720.ipynb",
      "C:/dev/08_resources/_tmp/raidrive_full/net_peek/nb_230901.ipynb"
    ],
    "recovered_handoff": "C:/dev/08_resources/_tmp/raidrive_full/net_peek/답변.md",
    "methods_verified_in_source": [
      "Separate lagged rolling Close and Volume correlations",
      "Network construction and dynamic threshold experiments",
      "Louvain communities and degree centrality for both networks",
      "Portfolio selection, rebalancing and KOSPI comparisons"
    ],
    "source_fidelity_requirements": [
      "Extract actual window, lag, threshold, edge-direction and selection rules per version; do not treat all nine notebooks as one fixed configuration.",
      "Preserve the distinction between price levels and returns, and between volume levels and normalized volume changes. Any revised statistical inputs must be explicitly labeled.",
      "A lagged correlation or an undirected implementation does not by itself establish a directed economic transmission channel.",
      "Original same-period selection and return charts are exploratory evidence, not validated investment performance."
    ]
  },
  "research_goal_revision": "network_research_goal_20261105.json"
}